Matchups

Head-to-head stats, win probabilities, moneyline odds, and edges for every D1 game. Click any team to visit their landing page.

Fresh Stable At Risk Burned

How Our Matchup Model Works

Every matchup card is powered by our Skill Model — a z-score based engine that evaluates teams on predictive skill stats rather than surface outcomes. Here's exactly how it works.

Win Prob is the model's estimated likelihood that each team wins. It is a statistical estimate — not a guarantee.

The model evaluates four weighted components:

Component	Key Stats Used	Weight
Team Strength	Run differential per game, RPI value (schedule-adjusted)	35%
Pitching Quality	FIP (fielding-independent pitching), K-BB% (stuff + command), WHIP	30%
Offense Quality	OPS, OBP, ISO (power), plate discipline (BB%-K%)	25%
Context	Home-field advantage, recent form	10%

Instead of raw stat comparisons, each team's stats are converted to z-scores — measuring how many standard deviations they are above or below the D1 average. This normalizes stats on different scales so they can be combined meaningfully.

The model prioritizes skill indicators over outcome stats. FIP strips out fielding luck to isolate pitching skill. ISO isolates power from batting average. K-BB% measures a pitcher's ability to strike out batters while limiting walks.

Home-field advantage is applied in log-odds space (mathematically correct, not a flat percentage add). A neutral-site game receives no home boost.
Small-sample regression: Early in the season (fewer than 15 games), stats are regressed toward the league average to prevent noisy data from creating false confidence.
Recent form from win-loss record is included at light weight — it adds context without hijacking the model.

The final score is converted to a probability using a logistic function, then clamped between 12% and 88%.

Example

Team A has a better FIP, stronger run differential, and higher OPS. Team B has a slight edge in recent form. The model combines these z-score advantages across all four components and might output Team A 63% — Team B 37%.

Model Edge is the difference between the model's win probability and the probability implied by sportsbook moneyline odds. It reveals where the model disagrees with the market.

How it's calculated:

Get the best moneyline — odds are pulled from multiple sportsbooks in real time. The most favorable line is used.
Convert to implied probability:
- Positive odds (+150): 100 ÷ (150 + 100) = 40%
- Negative odds (−200): 200 ÷ (200 + 100) = 66.7%
Model Edge = Model Win Probability − Market Implied Probability

Example

The model gives Team A a 58% win probability. Their moneyline is +110, implying 48%. Model Edge = 58% − 48% = +10%. The model rates Team A significantly higher than the market does.

Edges are classified into tiers:

Edge	Classification	Meaning
9%+	Premium Edge	Rare — strongest model-vs-market disagreement
6–8%	Strong Edge	Meaningful edge worth attention
3–5%	Slight Edge	Some model lean — within wider variance
<3%	No Edge	Model and market roughly agree

When a plus-money team (underdog) has an edge of 4%+, it's flagged as Underdog Value — the model thinks the dog wins more often than the market implies.

A positive edge does not mean a team will win. It means the model's estimate diverges from the market price. Odds change. No model predicts outcomes perfectly.

Each matchup card shows a Bullpen row with a status label and composite score (0–100) for each team. Higher scores mean a more vulnerable bullpen.

The score combines three factors:

Factor	What It Measures	Weight
Workload Stress	Recent bullpen usage — innings, back-to-back appearances, batters faced in the last 1–5 days	50%
Bullpen Quality	Season-long reliever performance — ERA, WHIP, K/BB ratio, strand rate, depth	30%
Starter Support	How deep starters go — avg IP per start, bullpen innings share, reliever depth	20%

Status labels are assigned by score range:

Label	Score	Meaning
Fresh	0–25	Rested, deep, and performing well. Low risk in late innings.
Stable	26–45	Normal workload, adequate quality. No major concern.
At Risk	46–65	Elevated stress or below-average quality. Potential late-game vulnerability.
Burned	66–100	Heavy recent usage combined with poor quality and thin depth. Strong late-game risk.

When two teams differ by 10+ points, a Bullpen Edge callout names the team with the healthier pen. This is an additional context signal — it does not override the main win-probability model.

Example

Team A shows At Risk 54 and Team B shows Stable 31. The 23-point gap triggers Bullpen Edge: Team B — meaning Team B has a meaningful pitching advantage in the late innings.

Data is sourced from stats.ncaa.org box scores (recent game-by-game reliever usage) combined with season-aggregate pitching statistics. Pitch counts are not available from NCAA box scores, so batters faced is used as the workload proxy.

All probabilities are data-driven estimates based on publicly available team statistics and schedule-adjusted rankings. They update as new data becomes available. Odds are sourced from third-party sportsbooks and may change at any time. This is informational — not betting advice.