Seamheads uses a multi-component statistical model to generate win probabilities and identify market edges. Rankings, strength scores, and all supporting data are rebuilt from raw D1 stats on every update cycle.
Composite Z-score model: Team Strength (35%), Pitching (30%), Offense (25%), Context (10%). Calibrated to 12–88% range.
Vig-free implied probability vs model probability. Premium ≥9%, Strong ≥6%, Slight ≥3%. Underdog minimums apply.
Offense (25%) + Rotation (25%) + Bullpen (20%) + Results (15%) + Depth (10%) + Trend (5%). Percentile scale 0–100.
Combines recent usage (fatigue score) with season bullpen quality ranking. Fresh / Stable / At Risk / Burned.
Projected starter quality score blends ERA, FIP, K-BB%, WHIP, and innings per start. 0–100 scale.
Internal ranking for "Featured" game selection: odds availability, model edge, power rank, starter quality, bullpen mismatch.