SEAMHEADS — Betting Intelligence Dashboard

Top Model Edges

Model probability vs vig-free market implied — sorted by edge

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Odds vs Model

Full slate — moneyline, model probability, implied probability, and edge for every game with market data

Time	Teams	ML / Move	Model %	Implied %	Edge	Bullpen
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Today's Best Angles

Algorithmically derived from model edge, starter mismatch, and bullpen context

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Parlay Builder

Add legs from the Edges tab — combined odds, implied probability, and return calculated automatically

Book

Add picks from the Top Edges or Angle Cards above.

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Combined Odds

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Implied Prob

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Total Return

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Market Intelligence

Line movement, opening vs current, steam, and consensus tools — expanding soon

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Line Movement

Track opening vs current line for every game. Identify where sharp money moved the number.

Coming Soon

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Best Available Price

Book-by-book line comparison. Find the most favorable number across all major sportsbooks.

Framework Ready

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Steam Alerts

Automated detection of coordinated line movement across multiple books — a classic sharp signal.

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Consensus Line

Market consensus price derived from all available books. Identify stale or off-consensus lines.

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Closing Line Value

Track how your model picks compared to the closing line — the gold standard for long-term edge measurement.

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Fair Value Calculator

Input your probability estimate, get the fair-value no-vig price and minimum odds for positive expected value.

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How This Dashboard Works

Model Probability

7-category z-score skill model — team strength, pitching quality, SP projection, offense, H2H context, home field, and recent form. Calibrated on 483 late-season games.

Vig-Free Implied

Raw implied probabilities from both sides of the market are normalized to sum to 100%, removing the sportsbook's built-in margin. This gives the true market consensus probability.

Model Edge

Model probability minus vig-free market implied. Edges ≥3% are flagged. 9%+ is Premium, 6–8% is Strong, 3–5% is Slight.

Underdog Value

Price-aware threshold: +100–149 dogs need 4%+ edge, +150–199 need 6%+, +200+ need 8%+. Long odds require more evidence before being flagged as value.

Parlay Calculation

Legs combined by multiplying decimal odds. Combined implied probability = 1 / combined decimal odds. Return = stake × combined odds. Not a single-book parlay guarantee.

Line Movement

Opening odds are captured on your first page visit and stored locally. Movement (↑/↓ in "cents") reflects change since first observation. Arrows show market support direction: ↑ toward = edge closing, ↓ away = edge growing. Market intel tags (Steaming ≥20c toward, Drifting ≥20c away) are threshold-driven.

Bullpen Context

Composite 0–100 vulnerability score: 50% recent workload, 30% season ERA/WHIP quality, 20% starter support. Fresh = 0–25, Stable = 26–45, At Risk = 46–65, Burned = 66–100.

All probabilities are data-driven estimates based on publicly available team statistics and schedule-adjusted rankings. Odds are sourced from third-party sportsbooks and may change at any time. A positive model edge does not guarantee a win — it means the model's estimate diverges from the fair-market price. Baseball is a high-variance sport. This is an informational tool, not betting advice.